Tag Archives: software upgrades

XP and the User’s Loss of Nerve

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Poor old Microsoft. They’ve had to extend the life of XP by offering it as an option to customers buying new hardware for another six months at least. They realise that people aren’t going to buy a Vista machine unless XP—what’s wonderfully called “downgrade media”–comes with it:

“As more customers make the move to Windows Vista, we want to make sure that they are making that transition with confidence and that it is as smooth as possible,” Microsoft said. “Providing downgrade media for a few more months is part of that commitment, as is the Windows Vista Small Business Assurance program, which provides one-on-one, customized support for our small-business customers.”

There’s a deeper issue here: Microsoft is beginning to recognise that no longer is there any appetite for users to upgrade operating systems themselves. Remember those lines around the block for Windows 3.1, 95, 98 and XP? Well, OK, maybe not all of them, but according to Wikipedia the fanfare surrounding the release of Windows 95 would nowadays be reserved for the ending of a major war. Or the launch of an iPhone, I guess.

Now we’re only interested in software upgrades if it’s a hardware upgrade. If then.

To be fair, I suspect this isn’t just the fault of Vista. I think a few other things have changed:

  • we’re less excited by software these days. Hardware we can get excited about, but as the proportion of people using technology has grown, the appetite for tweaking that technology has shrunk. Apple understand this, which is why they merge hardware and software, something Microsoft’s Balmer still doesn’t get.
  • Part of this is that I don’t think we believe our computers will do the things we think they will anymore. We drank the kool aid back then. We really thought the next iteration of an operating system would seriously improve our day. And, for the most part, it didn’t. So we moved on.
  • We’ve learned that our computers are getting too complex, and we trust them less. If it works, we’re happy. We don’t want to tempt fate by changing it. This feeds into security issues: We don’t feel safe online and so if we have any configuration that hasn’t arisen in calls from our bank or weird things popping up on our screen, we don’t want to experiment.

This feeds back to my running theme of recent weeks: The computer is becoming more and more like an appliance. We need it to to work, preferably out of the box. Apple (and the likes of Nokia, up to a point) have shown that to be possible, and so now we increasingly expect it of all our computing devices.

For the record I don’t necessarily think this is a good thing, because a dulled appetite for experimentation and change is never good, but after the ups and downs of the past few years, and the apparent failure of Vista, I can understand it.

In short, we users have lost our nerve.

Windows XP gets another lifeline : News : Software – ZDNet Asia

Photo credit: Bink.nu

Do Viruses Really Cost This Much?

Mi2g, the British-based security consultancy that seems to court controversy and a fair amount of ridicule, has issued a press release (it doesn’t seem to be up yet) that is likely to prompt similar reactions: “USD 166 billion malware damage in 2004”, the headline reads:

The total economic damage from malware – viruses, worms and trojans – in 2004 is estimated to lie between USD 169 billion and USD 204 billion, making 2004 the worst year on record by a wide margin according to the mi2g Intelligence Unit, the world leader in digital risk. 2003 did not log even half of the malware economic damage figures attributable to 2004. With an installed base of around 600 million Windows based computers worldwide, this works out roughly as average damage per installed machine of between USD 281 and USD 340.

Certainly viruses and worms are damaging computers, business and nerves but I’m not sure it stretches to $300 billion. That is the same as(from a quick search of recent news articles):

So I guess it’s not impossible. But it seems to be a bit over the top. Mi2g says it calculates damages “on the basis of helpdesk support costs, overtime payments, contingency outsourcing, loss of business, bandwidth clogging, productivity erosion, management time reallocation, cost of recovery and software upgrades. When available, Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) violations as well as customer and supplier liability costs have also been included in the estimates.” You could pretty much throw any old figures in there.

I would agree with them, however, when they point to the recent “proliferation of Bagle malware variants worldwide” as a sign that, like last year, “there could be a choppy cyber-sea ahead, made all the more complex by new and more dangerous malware families that are yet to emerge.” It may not be costing quite the equivalent of a major war, eradicating global poverty or how much Americans spend on sneakers and baseball games, but a virus sure can muck up your day.