Facebook can’t take Asian growth for granted

A piece I wrote ahead of Facebook’s IPO, casting a skeptical eye over assumptions that Asia would continue to be a source of major growth for the company.

Even as Facebook fever grips investors ahead of the social networking giant’s potential $100 billion-plus initial public offering, its breakneck growth in Asia may be slowing as it moves beyond desktop users to those who access the Internet largely or solely from a mobile phone.

In March, Facebook revised its own SEC filings to scale back its scope for further growth in India – its third-biggest user base and the largest population it currently has access to – China remains off-limits to Facebook. And independent data show that user numbers in Indonesia and the Philippines, its other largest Asia user bases, have actually fallen off slightly in the past three months.

“If you’ve been growing at such a huge amount it will definitely trail off,” said Ganesh Kumar Bangah, Kuala Lumpur-based CEO of online payment provider MOL Global. “You can’t expect it to keep growing.”

Read the rest: Analysis: Facebook can’t take Asian growth for granted

Korean Banks

The Washington Post report that it seems the attack on South Korea’s Nonghyup agricultural bank back in April was the work of North Korea. The evidence?

South Korean investigators said they determined that 10 servers used in the bank incident were the same ones used in previous cyberattack operations against South Korea, including one in 2009 and another in March, that they blamed on the North. Investigators say they determined, for instance, that a “command and control” server used in the 2009 operation was registered to a North Korean government agency operating in China.

This is interesting. Command and control servers are compromised computers that are used by bad guys to “run” other computers—zombies—that actually do the grunt work. There’s definitely a common thread between the 2009 and 2011 DDOS attacks, and plenty of circumstan

Podcast: Bad Things

The BBC World Service Business Daily version of my piece on link scams.  (The Business Daily podcast is here.)  

Audio clip: Adobe Flash Player (version 9 or above) is required to play this audio clip. Download the latest version here. You also need to have JavaScript enabled in your browser.

To listen to Business Daily on the radio, tune into BBC World Service at the following times, or click here.

Australasia: Mon-Fri 0141*, 0741 

East Asia: Mon-Fri 0041, 1441 
South Asia: Tue-Fri 0141*, Mon-Fri 0741 
East Africa: Mon-Fri 1941 
West Africa: Mon-Fri 1541* 
Middle East: Mon-Fri 0141*, 1141* 
Europe: Mon-Fri 0741, 2132 
Americas: Tue-Fri 0141*, Mon-Fri 0741, 1041, 2132

Thanks to the BBC for allowing me to reproduce it as a podcast.

Taking Shady RAT to the Next Level

I know I’ve drawn attention to this before, but the timeline of McAfee’s Operation Shady RAT by Dmitri Alperovitch raises questions again about WikiLeaks’ original data.

Alperovitch points out that their data goes back to mid-2006:

We have collected logs that reveal the full extent of the victim population since mid-2006 when the log collection began. Note that the actual intrusion activity may have begun well before that time but that is the earliest evidence we have for the start of the compromises.

This was around the time that Julian Assange was building up the content that, he recounted in emails at the time, that his hard drives were filling up with eavesdropped documents:

We have received over 1 million documents from 13 countries, despite not having publicly launched yet! (Wikileaks Leak, Jan, 2007)

Although Assange has since denied the material came from eavesdropping, it seems clear that it was, until McAfee’s report, the earliest example of a significant trove of documents and emails stolen by China-based hackers. This may have been the same channel stumbled upon a year later by Egerstad (Dan Egerstad’s Tor exit nodes get him arrested and proves a point I made in July | ZDNet).

There were, however, reports in mid 2006 of largescale theft of documents: State Dept (May), and NIPRNet (June), US War College (Sept) and German organisations (October).

I would like to see more data from McAfee and, in the interests of transparency, at least the metadata from the still unrevealed WikiLeaks stash in order to do some note comparing and triangulation. I’d also like to see this material compared with the groundbreaking work by three young Taiwanese white hats, who have sifted through malware samples to try to group together some of these APTs: APT Secrets in Asia – InSun的日志 – 网易博客.

The work has just begun.

Did Prolexic Fend Off Anonymous’s Sony Attacks?

Prolexic, a company that defends clients against Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attacks, says it has successfully combatted the “Largest Packet-Per-Second DDoS Attack Ever Documented in Asia”:

“Prolexic Technologies, the global leader in Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) mitigation services, today announced it successfully mitigated another major DDoS attack of unprecedented size in terms of packet-per-second volume. Prolexic cautions that global organizations should consider the attack an early warning of the escalating magnitude of similar DDoS threats that are likely to become more prevalent in the next 6 to 8 months.”

Although it describes the customer only as “an Asian company in a high-risk e-commerce industry” it could well be connected to the recent attacks on Sony by Anonymous. A piece by Sebastian Moss – The Worst Is Yet To Come: Anonymous Talks To PlayStation LifeStyle — in April quoted an alleged member of Anonymous called Takai as reacting to unconfirmed reports that Sony had hired Prolexic to defend itself (Sony Enlists DDoS Defense Firm to Combat Hackers):

“It was expected. We knew sooner or later Sony would enlist outside help”. Pressed on whether Anonymous would take out Prolexic, Takai showed confidence in the ‘hacktavist’s’ upcoming retaliation, stating “well, if I had to put money on it … I’d say, Prolexic is going down like a two dollar wh*** in a Nevada chicken ranch  ”. He did admit that the company “is quite formidable” and congratulated “them for doing so well”, but again he warned “We do however have ways for dealing with the ‘Prolexic’ factor”.

The website also quoted Anonymous members expressing frustration at the new defences, but that they appeared to be confident they would eventually prevail. That doesn’t seem to have happened.

Prolexic’s press release says the attacks had been going on for months before the client approached the company. The size of the attack, the company said, was staggering:

According to Paul Sop, chief technology officer at Prolexic, the volume reached levels of approximately 25 million packets per second, a rate that can overwhelm the routers and DDoS mitigation appliances of an ISP or major carrier. In contrast, most high-end border routers can forward 70,000 packets per second in typical deployments. In addition, Prolexic’s security experts found 176,000 remotely controlled PCs, or bots, in the attacker’s botnet (robot network). This represents a significant threat as typically only 5,000-10,000 bots have been employed in the five previous attacks mitigated by Prolexic.

It does not say why it considers the attack over, now gives any timeline for the attack. But if it is Sony, it presumably means that Anonymous has withdrawn for now or is preoccupied with other things. Prolexic, however, is probably right when it warns this is a harbinger of things to come:

“Prolexic sees this massive attack in Asia with millions of packets per second as an early warning beacon of the increasing magnitude of DDoS attacks that may be on the horizon for Europe and North America in the next 6 to 8 months,” Sop said. “High risk clients, such as those extremely large companies in the gaming and gambling industries in Asia, are usually the first targets of these huge botnets just to see how successful they can be.”

Podcast: The IMF’s Bad Dream

(Not tech related, this, so please skip if the IMF and Indonesia don’t float your boat. The BBC World Service Business Daily version of my piece on the IMF’s role in the Asian financial crisis of 1997/8 .  (The Business Daily podcast is here.)  

Audio clip: Adobe Flash Player (version 9 or above) is required to play this audio clip. Download the latest version here. You also need to have JavaScript enabled in your browser.

To listen to Business Daily on the radio, tune into BBC World Service at the following times, or click here.

Australasia: Mon-Fri 0141*, 0741

East Asia: Mon-Fri 0041, 1441 
South Asia: Tue-Fri 0141*, Mon-Fri 0741 
East Africa: Mon-Fri 1941 
West Africa: Mon-Fri 1541* 
Middle East: Mon-Fri 0141*, 1141* 
Europe: Mon-Fri 0741, 2132 
Americas: Tue-Fri 0141*, Mon-Fri 0741, 1041, 2132

Thanks to the BBC for allowing me to reproduce it as a podcast.

Podcast: Microsoft and Skype

The BBC World Service Business Daily version of my piece on Microsoft and Skype.  (The Business Daily podcast is here.)  

Audio clip: Adobe Flash Player (version 9 or above) is required to play this audio clip. Download the latest version here. You also need to have JavaScript enabled in your browser.

To listen to Business Daily on the radio, tune into BBC World Service at the following times, or click here.

Australasia: Mon-Fri 0141*, 0741 

East Asia: Mon-Fri 0041, 1441 
South Asia: Tue-Fri 0141*, Mon-Fri 0741 
East Africa: Mon-Fri 1941 
West Africa: Mon-Fri 1541* 
Middle East: Mon-Fri 0141*, 1141* 
Europe: Mon-Fri 0741, 2132 
Americas: Tue-Fri 0141*, Mon-Fri 0741, 1041, 2132

Thanks to the BBC for allowing me to reproduce it as a podcast.

Podcast on Diminished Reality

The BBC World Service Business Daily version of my piece on diminished reality (The Business Daily podcast is here)

Audio clip: Adobe Flash Player (version 9 or above) is required to play this audio clip. Download the latest version here. You also need to have JavaScript enabled in your browser.

To listen to Business Daily on the radio, tune into BBC World Service at the following times, or click here.

Australasia: Mon-Fri 0141*, 0741

East Asia: Mon-Fri 0041, 1441 
South Asia: Tue-Fri 0141*, Mon-Fri 0741 
East Africa: Mon-Fri 1941 
West Africa: Mon-Fri 1541* 
Middle East: Mon-Fri 0141*, 1141* 
Europe: Mon-Fri 0741, 2132 
Americas: Tue-Fri 0141*, Mon-Fri 0741, 1041, 2132

Thanks to the BBC for allowing me to reproduce it as a podcast.

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Podcast: Leaky Information

The BBC World Service Business Daily version of my piece on leaky information (The Business Daily podcast is here.)  

Audio clip: Adobe Flash Player (version 9 or above) is required to play this audio clip. Download the latest version here. You also need to have JavaScript enabled in your browser.

To listen to Business Daily on the radio, tune into BBC World Service at the following times, or click here.

 Australasia: Mon-Fri 0141*, 0741 

East Asia: Mon-Fri 0041, 1441 
South Asia: Tue-Fri 0141*, Mon-Fri 0741 
East Africa: Mon-Fri 1941 
West Africa: Mon-Fri 1541* 
Middle East: Mon-Fri 0141*, 1141* 
Europe: Mon-Fri 0741, 2132 
Americas: Tue-Fri 0141*, Mon-Fri 0741, 1041, 2132

Thanks to the BBC for allowing me to reproduce it as a podcast.

Podcast: Social Media and Social Conflict

The BBC World Service Business Daily version of my piece on the relationship between communications and political change .  (The Business Daily podcast is here.)   

Audio clip: Adobe Flash Player (version 9 or above) is required to play this audio clip. Download the latest version here. You also need to have JavaScript enabled in your browser.

To listen to Business Daily on the radio, tune into BBC World Service at the following times, or click here.

 Australasia: Mon-Fri 0141*, 0741 

East Asia: Mon-Fri 0041, 1441 
South Asia: Tue-Fri 0141*, Mon-Fri 0741 
East Africa: Mon-Fri 1941 
West Africa: Mon-Fri 1541* 
Middle East: Mon-Fri 0141*, 1141* 
Europe: Mon-Fri 0741, 2132 
Americas: Tue-Fri 0141*, Mon-Fri 0741, 1041, 2132

Thanks to the BBC for allowing me to reproduce it as a podcast.