Is phishing a phlash in the pan?
No, says the the Radicati Group, Inc., in its new report, “E-mail Anti-Phishing and Anti-Fraud Market Trends 2004-2008”, which “provides market size, market share, four-year forecasts, technology trends, key solutions, and competitive information for the emerging e-mail anti-phishing and anti-fraud software market”. Phishing, it appears, is big business whichever side of the fence you’re on.
On the one hand, phishing attacks will only grow. The Radicati Group, a “Consulting and Market Research Firm specializing in all areas of Messaging & Collaboration, Directory Services, Provisioning & Identity Management, Security, Unified Messaging & Communications, and Wireless”, says that the number of unique phishing attacks worldwide will grow 115% from an average of 51 unique attacks per month in 2004, to 110 unique attacks per month by 2008.
That means lots of money for the phishers. But it also means a fair chunk of money for anyone in the still infant “e-mail anti-phishing market”. Radicati divides the market into two segments: “E-mail Anti-Phishing solutions which protect consumers from divulging personal information to criminals, and Anti-Fraud solutions which protect an organization’s brand, trademark and website from fraud.” Overall market value of this particular niche? A precise $202 million this year, but “growing to over $880 million by 2008”.
I’m not sure how you can predict something like this, given most people hadn’t heard of phishing a year ago. I’m skeptical: I think phishing will evolve into other forms of identity and financial theft and that what we now think of phishing won’t really exist in a year’s time. But I’m probably wrong.